Homework Eighth

I really like Sci-Fi movies and I'm really interesting in watching it. I like the way how this people think, this could make big different in our life if that happened. I like the idea of the movie. From watching the movie and what happened in it. it could be a lot of crime in Washington D.C because as we see now there is a lot of weapons everyone can carry one, but I don’t think what they called it "pre-Cogs" have special power that see into future and predict crimes beforehand. What I saw in the movie that these people can punish the guilty person before the crime happen and know all the details about it. In my opinion this could not happen, it’s hard for me to believe it. what could happened they can stop the crime before it happened by fallow the trial and have some evidences, but they can’t have all the details about it. This movie talking about stop the crime before it happened by knowing the future by technology and scanning the eyes to get all the information and every single details. Their goal to make the world clean from all these crime and make people live peaceful life by making really straight justice system. It’s impossible to know the future but we can only predict. We have a lot of new technology it helps us in our life and it makes our life easier, but by knowing the future it’s really impossible.

Homework Seven

I am supposed to have more information but unfortunately this all I got new .

In the second part of the homework we are asked to apply TRIZ in our topic. My topic is transportations in the future. I think is a good example for that is making cars working without spending any gas when they reach like sixty five or seventy mile per second, I think in that speed cars can produce energy by their movement, and that can be used instead of the gas.
Then part B we are asked to pick up ten TRIZ items and apply them to our topic.1) Local Quality: make something that is uniform, nonuniform. When we make cars produce energy in certain speed that is changing them from uniform to nonuniform.2) Asymmetry: make something that is symmetric, asymmetric. I think having cars with more number of wheels could help them to produce more energy than having four tires.3) Segmentation: break something unitary into parts, modules, pieces, etc. in our situation when the car reach the speed that it needs to stop spending gas we could let the part that we do not need to be off.4) Universality: make one thing do more than one thing. I think we cars could be able to fly in the future.5) Preliminary action: do something to an object before it is needed. Cars in the future might be able to tell driver if something wrong would happen before it happens.6) Equipotentiality: compensate for gravity. As I mentioned before cars may be able to fly in the future.7) Dynamics: make it movable or flexible. Cars can be fixed by themselves, like if there is something wrong in them they get fixed without taking them to a mechanic.8) Self-service: something serves itself. In the future cars might have programs which can lead them anywhere we want to go.9) Color changes: change color or transparency of object or environment. We might have cars can get change their colors as we like.10) Cheap short-lived objects: throw it away afterwards. As I mentioned before that we may need more wheels in order to produce more energy, therefore tires should be cheaper in the future.



The second part is to design an outline for our report.
1) Introduction:
a) The history of transportation.
b) The current transportation.

2) Kind of transportations applications can be reach in the future.
3) What is passable and what is not.
4) Issue we may face with new kind of transportations.
5) Conclusion.
6) References.

Homewrok six

We have discussed in the class with our teacher some topics relates to the future, and from these topics we should fine three websites for these topics, then we have to make an argument about we found in those websites.
1) When will the broadband Internet speed/download speed offering reach 1 GBPS (gigabyte per second globally (i.e 51 to 49 % being dominant), where downloading a whole movie (approx 2 Gigs) would happen in 3 seconds at max?
a) http://gigaom.com/2009/02/01/by-2012-koreans-will-get-a-gigabit-per-second-broadband-connection/. (This article talks about that Korea will get 1Gbps Broadband Connections by 2012).
b) http://www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/article/147451/study_calls_for_1g_broadband_in_us.html . ( this article about study calls for 1G broadband in US).
c) http://www.cellphonehits.net/1gbps-internet-speed-now-available-in-japan/ . ( this article saying that 1Gbps internet speed new available in Japan).

2) What will the average human lifespan be in the US, in the year 2050?
a) http://www.imminst.org/forum/index.php?act=ST&f=67&t=680&s ( This article talks about Average Human Lifespan, Maximum Human Lifespan, and different things that may help to a make a research on lifespan in the US, in the year 2050.
b) http://www.mentalhelp.net/poc/center_index.php?id=72 (this article talks about Medical Disorders and how do the affect people life).
c) http://www.infed.org/biblio/lifecourse_development.htm (This article talks about lifespan development and lifelong learning).

3) Green energy technologies.
a) http://www.alternative-energy-news.info/150mpg-algae-powered-toyota-prius (this article talks about if we could use algae instead of gasoline in cars.
b) http://www.alternative-energy-news.info/more-efficient-solar-cells-with-carbon-%20nanotubes/ (in this article there are thinking on using carbon instead of silicon which is cheaper and more efficient hopefully).
c) http://www.alternative-energy-news.info/solar-flower-tower/ ( this article talks about thr future solar power in South Israel).

In the second part of the homework we are asked to apply TRIZ in our topic. My topic is transportations in the future. I think is a good example for that is making cars working without spending any gays when they reach like sixty five or seventy mile per second, I think in that speed cars can produce energy by their movement, and that can be used instead of the gas.
Then part B we are asked to pick up ten TRIZ items and apply them to our topic.
1) Local Quality: make something that is uniform, nonuniform. When we make cars produce energy in certain speed that is changing them from uniform to nonuniform.
2) Asymmetry: make something that is symmetric, asymmetric. I think having cars with more number of wheels could help them to produce more energy than having four tires.
3) Segmentation: break something unitary into parts, modules, pieces, etc. in our situation when the car reach the speed that it needs to stop spending gas we could let the part that we do not need to be off.
4) Universality: make one thing do more than one thing. I think we cars could be able to fly in the future.
5) Preliminary action: do something to an object before it is needed. Cars in the future might be able to tell driver if something wrong would happen before it happens.
6) Equipotentiality: compensate for gravity. As I mentioned before cars may be able to fly in the future.
7) Dynamics: make it movable or flexible. Cars can be fixed by themselves, like if there is something wrong in them they get fixed without taking them to a mechanic.
8) Self-service: something serves itself. In the future cars might have programs which can lead them anywhere we want to go.
9) Color changes: change color or transparency of object or environment. We might have cars can get change their colors as we like.
10) Cheap short-lived objects: throw it away afterwards. As I mentioned before that we may need more wheels in order to produce more energy, therefore tires should be cheaper in the future.

Homework Five

In this homework I will talk about Predication Markets. I will use the website which our instructor gave us in the class. http://www.intrade.com/. On the predication market everyone can make bids depending on what they think.
1) GM to sell 15,000 Chevy Volts by December 31, 2011
The current bid is 10%, I believe this number should be higher since the gas price is getting higher.
2) USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 31 Dec 2010
The current bid is 30.5%, I do not believe that would happen, not because they cannot do it but because they will lose a lot of money in that war.
3) Verizon to announce before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 that it will begin selling the Apple iPhone.
The current bid is 0.5%, I think AT&T will renew the agreement with Apple againe, therefore Verizon wont have the chance to sell Apple Ipone.
4) Barack Obama to be Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2012
The current bid is 81.3%, I believe he will be nominee in 2012 again according to the good things that he already has done.

5) Average national price for regular unleaded gas to be $1.00 per gallon or more on 31 Dec 2009
The current bid 95%, this could happen if the exporting country of oil start to export two times more the amount that they export.
6) A federal government run health insurance plan to be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec 2009
The current bid is 28.4%, I think this will occur since they have been working on it for long time.
7) The US Economy will go into Recession during 2010
The current bid is 39.4%, I do believe that not only the US Economy go into recession but the whole world economy will go into recession but not in next year, I think that it would happen in two years from new.
8) British troops in Iraq to withdraw to less than 1000 soldiers remaining by Jan 1st 2010
The current bid is 70%, I do not believe that would happen by Jun 1st 2010 because Iraq government still need support.
9) Osama Bin Laden to be captured/neutralised by 31 Dec 2009.
The current bid is 3.7%, I do not believe he will be captured because I think he is already died.
10) Average Global Temperature for 2009 to be among five warmest years on record.
The current bid is 60%, I do not think so, because from my own experience I feel like every winter season is getting colder that the others.


Average national price for regular unleaded gas to be $1.00 per gallon or more on 31 Dec 2009
I do not believe this will happen because I think everything is getting more expensive and that because oil products is getting more expensive,

HW 4

For homework four I have decided to talk about transportations in ten years, what kind will get changed and what not, I will also talk about the reasons that may make transportation change. So I will make a research about that and from there I will say how transportations will get change.

Homework Three

We discussed the Delphi method. The questions below will give a more in-depth understanding of the Delphi method. Post the answers on your blog.



1. If your question was one of those that the class used the Delphi method on, find the median and the range of the middle 50% of the responses. Using a graphics editor of your choice (even paint works for this), make a graph that is analogous or similar to the one in the lecture notes, showing the total range, middle 50% range, and median. If your question was not discussed in class, then (1) figure out a way of saying the question that will hopefully work well when we apply the Delphi method to it in class, and (2) explain why you designed the question the way you did.

My question was one of those that the class used the Delphi method one the question was when commercial airplanes will be ten time faster. We recorded students’ prediction on the board. Then I asked some of my classmates about their predictions. Then we recorded a new predication based on the discussions that we had which almost was the same.

2. Read up on the Delphi method on the Web (or the library). Explain how the process that we went through in class differs from the process as described in the sources you found.

Delphi Method: we use it to explore an issue with a distributed group of people. In this method we define the problem that we want to work on, then we give everyone the problem, then we collate the responses, then we give everyone the collation, and finally we repeat as necessary. i think we went through the process very well.

3. Based on what you can find about the Delphi method, what shortcomings, risks, or other weaknesses do you see for the process that we followed in class? Also do you see a way to fix some of these?

I think if we have the questions before the class it would be better, we could read about the questions from the internet or ask about them which will allow us to have stronger discussions.

HW 2

In the class we discussed four different types of curves. Linear, exponential, s-shaped, and plateau curves. We were asked to make a prediction of future using those curves to describe that prediction. I think word economic is a good example for that.
Word economic is very interesting topic to be apply to the four curves. We all know that the word economic in the past grew very slow especially before the industries and oil used became so wide, and this represented steady linear curve. But if we compare the long past to the early past, it will represent the exponential shape.
Looking at word economic in these days and compare it with the long past it will represent the s-shaped curve. And I think in the future the word economic will fail so it would represent the plateau curve.
Estimate the doubling time of the software development productivity of the average programmer, if productivity increases at 6%/year.
Let us say the doubling time would be 10 years. Then in 12 years the amount would be double.
Estimate the percent per year of increases in the complexity of PC computers if this complexity doubles every 2 years. (By "complexity" we could say we're talking about the number of transistors on a CPU chip, if you were wondering.)
The approximate percent increase would be about 41%/year.
Estimate the percent per year of increases in the complexity of PC computers if complexity doubles every 18 months, as some think it is doing.
The percent increase is about 56%.
What is the doubling time of your money if you have it in the bank making 2% interest per year?It would 35 years for an arbitrary amount of money to double if it is gaining 2% interest