Tuesday, September 22, 2009
HW 4
For homework four I have decided to talk about transportations in ten years, what kind will get changed and what not, I will also talk about the reasons that may make transportation change. So I will make a research about that and from there I will say how transportations will get change.
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Homework Three
We discussed the Delphi method. The questions below will give a more in-depth understanding of the Delphi method. Post the answers on your blog.
1. If your question was one of those that the class used the Delphi method on, find the median and the range of the middle 50% of the responses. Using a graphics editor of your choice (even paint works for this), make a graph that is analogous or similar to the one in the lecture notes, showing the total range, middle 50% range, and median. If your question was not discussed in class, then (1) figure out a way of saying the question that will hopefully work well when we apply the Delphi method to it in class, and (2) explain why you designed the question the way you did.
My question was one of those that the class used the Delphi method one the question was when commercial airplanes will be ten time faster. We recorded students’ prediction on the board. Then I asked some of my classmates about their predictions. Then we recorded a new predication based on the discussions that we had which almost was the same.
2. Read up on the Delphi method on the Web (or the library). Explain how the process that we went through in class differs from the process as described in the sources you found.
Delphi Method: we use it to explore an issue with a distributed group of people. In this method we define the problem that we want to work on, then we give everyone the problem, then we collate the responses, then we give everyone the collation, and finally we repeat as necessary. i think we went through the process very well.
3. Based on what you can find about the Delphi method, what shortcomings, risks, or other weaknesses do you see for the process that we followed in class? Also do you see a way to fix some of these?
I think if we have the questions before the class it would be better, we could read about the questions from the internet or ask about them which will allow us to have stronger discussions.
1. If your question was one of those that the class used the Delphi method on, find the median and the range of the middle 50% of the responses. Using a graphics editor of your choice (even paint works for this), make a graph that is analogous or similar to the one in the lecture notes, showing the total range, middle 50% range, and median. If your question was not discussed in class, then (1) figure out a way of saying the question that will hopefully work well when we apply the Delphi method to it in class, and (2) explain why you designed the question the way you did.
My question was one of those that the class used the Delphi method one the question was when commercial airplanes will be ten time faster. We recorded students’ prediction on the board. Then I asked some of my classmates about their predictions. Then we recorded a new predication based on the discussions that we had which almost was the same.
2. Read up on the Delphi method on the Web (or the library). Explain how the process that we went through in class differs from the process as described in the sources you found.
Delphi Method: we use it to explore an issue with a distributed group of people. In this method we define the problem that we want to work on, then we give everyone the problem, then we collate the responses, then we give everyone the collation, and finally we repeat as necessary. i think we went through the process very well.
3. Based on what you can find about the Delphi method, what shortcomings, risks, or other weaknesses do you see for the process that we followed in class? Also do you see a way to fix some of these?
I think if we have the questions before the class it would be better, we could read about the questions from the internet or ask about them which will allow us to have stronger discussions.
Monday, September 7, 2009
HW 2
In the class we discussed four different types of curves. Linear, exponential, s-shaped, and plateau curves. We were asked to make a prediction of future using those curves to describe that prediction. I think word economic is a good example for that.
Word economic is very interesting topic to be apply to the four curves. We all know that the word economic in the past grew very slow especially before the industries and oil used became so wide, and this represented steady linear curve. But if we compare the long past to the early past, it will represent the exponential shape.
Looking at word economic in these days and compare it with the long past it will represent the s-shaped curve. And I think in the future the word economic will fail so it would represent the plateau curve.
Estimate the doubling time of the software development productivity of the average programmer, if productivity increases at 6%/year.
Let us say the doubling time would be 10 years. Then in 12 years the amount would be double.
Estimate the percent per year of increases in the complexity of PC computers if this complexity doubles every 2 years. (By "complexity" we could say we're talking about the number of transistors on a CPU chip, if you were wondering.)
The approximate percent increase would be about 41%/year.
Estimate the percent per year of increases in the complexity of PC computers if complexity doubles every 18 months, as some think it is doing.
The percent increase is about 56%.
What is the doubling time of your money if you have it in the bank making 2% interest per year?It would 35 years for an arbitrary amount of money to double if it is gaining 2% interest
Word economic is very interesting topic to be apply to the four curves. We all know that the word economic in the past grew very slow especially before the industries and oil used became so wide, and this represented steady linear curve. But if we compare the long past to the early past, it will represent the exponential shape.
Looking at word economic in these days and compare it with the long past it will represent the s-shaped curve. And I think in the future the word economic will fail so it would represent the plateau curve.
Estimate the doubling time of the software development productivity of the average programmer, if productivity increases at 6%/year.
Let us say the doubling time would be 10 years. Then in 12 years the amount would be double.
Estimate the percent per year of increases in the complexity of PC computers if this complexity doubles every 2 years. (By "complexity" we could say we're talking about the number of transistors on a CPU chip, if you were wondering.)
The approximate percent increase would be about 41%/year.
Estimate the percent per year of increases in the complexity of PC computers if complexity doubles every 18 months, as some think it is doing.
The percent increase is about 56%.
What is the doubling time of your money if you have it in the bank making 2% interest per year?It would 35 years for an arbitrary amount of money to double if it is gaining 2% interest
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