Homework Five

In this homework I will talk about Predication Markets. I will use the website which our instructor gave us in the class. http://www.intrade.com/. On the predication market everyone can make bids depending on what they think.
1) GM to sell 15,000 Chevy Volts by December 31, 2011
The current bid is 10%, I believe this number should be higher since the gas price is getting higher.
2) USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 31 Dec 2010
The current bid is 30.5%, I do not believe that would happen, not because they cannot do it but because they will lose a lot of money in that war.
3) Verizon to announce before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 that it will begin selling the Apple iPhone.
The current bid is 0.5%, I think AT&T will renew the agreement with Apple againe, therefore Verizon wont have the chance to sell Apple Ipone.
4) Barack Obama to be Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2012
The current bid is 81.3%, I believe he will be nominee in 2012 again according to the good things that he already has done.

5) Average national price for regular unleaded gas to be $1.00 per gallon or more on 31 Dec 2009
The current bid 95%, this could happen if the exporting country of oil start to export two times more the amount that they export.
6) A federal government run health insurance plan to be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec 2009
The current bid is 28.4%, I think this will occur since they have been working on it for long time.
7) The US Economy will go into Recession during 2010
The current bid is 39.4%, I do believe that not only the US Economy go into recession but the whole world economy will go into recession but not in next year, I think that it would happen in two years from new.
8) British troops in Iraq to withdraw to less than 1000 soldiers remaining by Jan 1st 2010
The current bid is 70%, I do not believe that would happen by Jun 1st 2010 because Iraq government still need support.
9) Osama Bin Laden to be captured/neutralised by 31 Dec 2009.
The current bid is 3.7%, I do not believe he will be captured because I think he is already died.
10) Average Global Temperature for 2009 to be among five warmest years on record.
The current bid is 60%, I do not think so, because from my own experience I feel like every winter season is getting colder that the others.


Average national price for regular unleaded gas to be $1.00 per gallon or more on 31 Dec 2009
I do not believe this will happen because I think everything is getting more expensive and that because oil products is getting more expensive,